More accurate way to assess the value of a year of healthy life is proposed.
As the population ages, healthcare costs are rising rapidly, and more and more countries are faced with the need to make tough choices about which medical measures really justify the investment. Japan, one of the longest-lived countries in the world, is particularly sensitive to this problem: by 2040, its healthcare costs may almost double. Traditionally, the QALY indicator is used to assess the effectiveness of medical interventions — years of life adjusted for quality. It takes into account how many years of life the treatment gives and how good the state of health will be during these years. However, this indicator has a serious drawback: it is most often calculated as a single value, the same for people of any age. Researchers from the Tokyo University of Science have proposed a new approach that takes into account a person’s age and the scenario of changing the quality of life throughout life.
The new model is based on the concept of the “value of statistical life”, an economic indicator reflecting the willingness of society to pay for reducing the risk of death. Scientists have adapted this indicator to the QALY assessment, linking it to age and individual health trajectory.
An analysis of Japanese data has shown that the real value of one year of healthy life changes significantly with age. For young people, the extra year of life is estimated to be lower than for the elderly, since for older age groups each additional year has greater subjective and social significance. This means that medical programs for the elderly can be economically justified even at a higher cost.
The study also revealed an important paradox: when the general population remains in good health for longer, the monetary value of one QALY decreases. Simply put, the healthier the society, the cheaper it is to prolong an active life nationwide.
In addition, the model demonstrates that measures aimed at increasing healthy life expectancy can significantly reduce long-term health care costs. Transferring more people to so-called healthy aging scenarios reduces the burden on the budget and makes the system more resilient.
The method can be adapted for any country, taking into account its socio-economic data. Such opportunities make the new model a universal tool for making more informed decisions in an aging population.
As a result, the study shows that the future of sustainable healthcare lies not only in the treatment of diseases, but above all in prolonging years of good health.
The new model is based on the concept of the “value of statistical life”, an economic indicator reflecting the willingness of society to pay for reducing the risk of death. Scientists have adapted this indicator to the QALY assessment, linking it to age and individual health trajectory.
An analysis of Japanese data has shown that the real value of one year of healthy life changes significantly with age. For young people, the extra year of life is estimated to be lower than for the elderly, since for older age groups each additional year has greater subjective and social significance. This means that medical programs for the elderly can be economically justified even at a higher cost.
The study also revealed an important paradox: when the general population remains in good health for longer, the monetary value of one QALY decreases. Simply put, the healthier the society, the cheaper it is to prolong an active life nationwide.
In addition, the model demonstrates that measures aimed at increasing healthy life expectancy can significantly reduce long-term health care costs. Transferring more people to so-called healthy aging scenarios reduces the burden on the budget and makes the system more resilient.
The method can be adapted for any country, taking into account its socio-economic data. Such opportunities make the new model a universal tool for making more informed decisions in an aging population.
As a result, the study shows that the future of sustainable healthcare lies not only in the treatment of diseases, but above all in prolonging years of good health.
Published
January, 2026
Category
Interesting facts
Duration of reading
2-3 minutes
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Source
Scientific Journal Scientific Reports. Article: Deriving monetary value of quality-adjusted life years through life extension from the value of a statistical life
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